Is dependence on Russian oil and gas but also will make electricity?
When in November 2010 begat a note "fillip-elektryczek" which described the initial fitting of our non-government to import electricity from the Kaliningrad region, I felt in my bones that have come to the topic return. And please - half a year has passed and the columns of mediodajni przemknęły notes informing that the case is practically tapping. means deepening energy dependence on Russia and the marginalization of alternatives awaits us in the coming years, a shortage of electricity .
Oh, another reason for the current camarilla should appear before the State Tribunal.
I build bridges ...
But after the turn. Well, in November last year, leaked to the press information on ongoing analytical work on building an energy bridge from Kaliningrad, which popłynąłby to the Polish electricity from being built Baltic Nuclear Power Plant. The first is likely to determine the collapsed talks Waldemar Pawlak, Deputy Prime Ministers Igor Sechin and on the occasion of signing a gas contract. Commissioning of Russian power plant is planned for 2016 years (the second block is to be launched in 2018). The bridge would be a joint venture operators Inter RAO (Russia) and PSE Operator (Poland) . Its construction pochłonęłaby several hundred million zlotys, which is the sum still needs to be done on the infrastructure investment Polish side, while the cost of 1 km of new lines oscillate around a million euros and it would have the sole expense Polish operator.
same time it is worth noting that such a project is unlikely to make the European Union, the preference for the construction of energy links between the countries of the community. It should be noted that originally was planned energy bridge Alytus-Elk , where we had to import electricity from the power of Lithuanian Visaginas to be established in place of the closed Ignalina. Note that this Polish-Lithuanian investment had all the qualities to get the financial support of the Union.
For the Russians it would be very uncomfortable, in fact, meant into question the viability of Baltic Nuclear Power Plant, built largely for the export of energy - to the Baltic, Polish and Belarus. Thus began an intense lobbying, with Visaginas eliminated from the game and just see the first concrete results. The energy bridge with Lithuania became quiet, but a few days ago the head of the Polish Energy Group, Thomas Zadroga, stated that "Poland will buy electricity from the Russians' . I would add that this is a matter of near future - Russian electricity will flow because for Poland, Kaliningrad will start as soon as power - that is to say for 5 years. At the moment, negotiations are underway.
II. Tempo!
Note the stunning pace: the first talks between Pawlak and Sechin were held on the occasion of the signing gas deal with Russia (10/29/2010). The analytical work on the bridge of energy we have learned in November 2010 with the President of the PSE-Operator Henryk Majchrzak argued that work will take about a year , and quoted by "Rzeczpospolita" statement ( "It would be a sin of omission, if we had not done the analysis of this line" ) suggested that nothing is a foregone conclusion - such an analysis, "in case" ... Already in February 2011 learn that between Inter RAO and PGE, and PSE-Operator dialogue is a call for the import of Russian power - fall Preliminary figures: 1000 MW, or about 8% of annual demand Polish. Now the President of PGE admits that the talks already scheduled negotiations and the issue of import is a foregone conclusion. Recall that studies of the bridge will be completed in the autumn, and had already been taken the political decision to import (PSE-Operator is subject to the Minister of Economy, ie W. Pawlak, the same who spoke with Sechin and "negotiated" contract gas). The only adjustment carried out with an iron hand the script to replace the bridge with the tip of Polish Olsztyn Elbląg.
Another issue is the haste with which the Russians are pursuing their nuclear development at our border - there are reasonable grounds for believing that such a pace, built in the plant will be fully secure, given the proverbial Russian "Bardak" ...
III. Projections, fears ...
Now let me some speculation. Well, I suspect that for the final negotiations we will, as usual, when it will be too late, hollow out the pro-government media have not in fact the case, content with brief economic notkami in boxes. Here the scenario is repeated with the negotiation of gas - about of major importance for Polish is relegated to the distant sail plan and probably only when everything is already decided. This also applies to negligence of the opposition - remember that "in the" gas PiS woke up just before the final talks, just might be the issue of electricity imports - meanwhile, have to scream now because a few months can be already too late.
Another concern which I wish to terminate the share relates to the scale of imports - think that, as in the case of gas, Russia wants us to cram his shock at the throat, so that eventually eliminated from the game Lithuanian Visaginę, and maybe even our Żarnowiec. In other words, it can be much more than 1000 MW and 8% of our demand which is the case in question, and probably Russia wants to achieve the status of the exclusive exporter in our market. How does it translate into energy prices? I remind you that Russian gas would be "cheap" and if you dip your fingers in the negotiations, "experts" from Pawlak's ...
And finally - if We're really not able to wait four to six years longer to complete the construction of the plant in Visaginas (2020) and Żarnowiec (2022), and as long as the missing import electricity from other directions, or even invest in the modernization of connection Ukrainian power station "Khmelnytsky"? And what about having supposedly built gas-fired plant?
In a few scraps (eg TU and TU ) has reached the "conspiracy" theory that Russia desires to bounce itself in other areas of what is lost when opportunity to negotiate natural gas as a result of intervention of the European Commission last minute. Import of electricity from Kaliningrad looks like part of the "compensation", while the Kremlin get another tool to pressure - the threat tight gas valve reaches atomic "fillip-elektryczek" .
Talking Mushroom
illustration: "The Republic"
